Tag: GDP

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The Brexit Sterling …What does the future hold?

The Brexit Sterling

…What does the future hold?

There is a lot going in the United Kingdom right now.

The Prime Minister of the UK is in the process of triggering Article 50 of The Lisbon Treaty to initiate the process of formal withdrawal of Britain from the European Union.  Scotland is poised to restart a referendum to separate from the United Kingdom.  Terrorism has raised its ugly head in London again and the Labor Unions are unhappy with Parliament.

When you consider the ramifications of all of the above taking place at one time, it is apparent the country of Great Britain has a lot on its plate.  It is also apparent that the Pound Sterling is in for a wild ride.

The Sterling may be whirling!

Initially, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that the Sterling could fall by up to 20% when the UK activates Article 50.  They also predicted that such an outcome would alarm foreign investors and keep them from injecting capital into Britain…”placing pressure on the current account deficit.”

The Goldman team noted that the Pound tumbled 20% on a trade-weighted basis during the global financial crisis between July 2008 and March 2009 and the account deficit moved from 3.4% of GDP to virtually zero.  Using that data as a benchmark, Goldman Sachs has extrapolated what they believe is a correlation of potential outcomes for UK currency based on current Brexit market disruptions.

As the formal launch of the UK’s two-year divorce proceedings from the EU get underway, the long-term outlook for the Sterling is yet to be determined by the final Brexit deal.  No doubt, the short-term price (action) will be dictated by shifting possibilities as the latest political developments emerge.

Only time will tell if Goldman analysts have correctly anticipated upcoming Sterling values.  The first indications as to whether currency rates will behave as expected are literally days away.

April Strategies for May…

Prime Minister May presented her strategy in January of this year and has repeatedly said since then that she is, “prepared to walk away from negotiations without a deal if she is dissatisfied with the terms on offer.”   Her goals are simple according to her.

She plans to leave the single market and also clamp down on immigration.  She has said she wants a “bold and ambitious” trade relationship with the EU, but also the freedom to negotiate trade agreements with other countries…..outside the constraints imposed on EU members.

It is expected that politics will dominate the early part of the negotiations.  It is also expected that the EU’s negotiating team’s response to Article 50 should be clearer by the end of April.  The EU stance will be critical in setting the tone for ongoing exit negotiations and trade deals with the currency bloc.

Tarnished Sterling…

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has an inflation rate at its highest level in three years, retail sales numbers have slipped and payroll growth has slowed to a crawl…possibly as a result of continuing low levels of unemployment.

Various analysts have predicted that Britain’s inflation will peak at a minimum of 2.8% in the second quarter of next year but many economists believe it may actually touch 3%.  The steep drop in the Sterling since the Brexit vote, coupled with a recovery in global oil prices has pushed the Sterling to higher prices in recent months, thus leading to fears that rising inflation will erode consumer confidence and spending.

Having said that, most Forex analysts expect the Sterling to come under heavy selling pressure as the Brexit negotiations continue to unfold. It is possible it could drop to parity with the Euro and perhaps even against the Dollar.

What does the future hold?

Currency analysts at Deutsche Bank said the Sterling could fall as low as $1.06 as the Brexit process unfolds.  In a special report on the upcoming Brexit negotiations, they wrote, “…we do not see the Sterling (currently) fully pricing a hard Brexit outcome.  Combined with limited adjustment in the UK’s current account deficit and slowing growth, we see further downside, and forecast $1.06 by year-end.”

However, other Forex analysts don’t expect the triggering of Article 50 to have a major short-term impact on the Pound, predicting that the currency could rebound as markets react positively once there is greater clarity on the issues associated with the negotiations.

In fact, economists at ING Group have indicated in a research note that while they believe the broader risks to the Sterling lie to the downside, they expect the triggering of Article 50 to have a more symbolic impact on the Pound.  In that respect, Morgan Stanley analysts believe the triggering of Article 50 is already priced into Sterling.

Interestingly, Bank of America Merrill Lynch is currently bearish on the outlook for Sterling, rejecting the notion that the Sterling has fully priced Article 50 into its currency valuation.

MosaicaFX

Again, it is our position (as mentioned in several recent articles) the consensus for the outcome of currencies effected by Brexit and the triggering of Article 50 by the PM is not a consensus.  The opinions and projections (see the aforementioned) of what the currencies associated with the United Kingdom are poised to do based on Brexit and Article 50 are scattered to the wind.

It is safe to say that it is more important than ever for businesses that rely on currency trading using the GBP and Sterling, to work with a currency management company they can count on to remain focused on this volatile situation.  Take a moment to contact one of our account managers at MosaicaFX so they can explain to you what our plan of action is to stay abreast of the currency valuations of the UK.

 

 

Business, Economy

State of the Union All Trumped Up!

State of the Union

All Trumped Up!

Tuesday night, newly elected President Donald Trump gave his first speech before Congress.  As with anything that revolves around the new Administration, there was almost a “circus,” like appeal to the drama associated with it.

It wasn’t a “circus,” like atmosphere in the normal sense like the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus, on the contrary, the anticipation was more like the Roman Circus during the 1st century held in the Coliseum.

While many people that watched the speech on television were doing so out of dramatic curiosity as much as to learn what the Administration was planning… those in the financial, banking and foreign currency sectors were watching to get a preview of what they could expect in the markets the next day and quite possibly for the next several months to come.

As we at MosaicaFX have mentioned many times before, today’s markets can be roiled by simple “tweets,” or sound bites delivered by our nations Chief Executive.  Hence, the President’s first full speech before a joint session of Congress could have tremendous impact on various domestic and global economic indicators.

What Did We Learn?

Some of the main takeaways from the President’s speech are as follows;

  • Revamping and simplifying the U.S. Tax Code is a priority.
  • International Trade Policies that have hindered U.S. manufacturing and exports will be renegotiated.
  • Congress will be asked to approve a $1 TRILLION Dollar infrastructure spending bill.
  • The U.S. Military will be heavily invested in to replenish its fighting capabilities.
  • The mandated Affordable Care Act will be repealed and replaced with a more efficient and less invasive program.

While many other items were mentioned on a “wish list,” type approach, the five items listed above were the primary focus of the speech.  As the speech also contained numerous emotional and personal references to individuals in the Congressional Gallery, it was received overall as a very positive speech with far-reaching ramifications that should bode well for the financial markets. 

What Was the Effect?

As the Presidents first joint session speech to the Congress appears to have had a highly positive reception by both Republicans and Democrats, the financial markets at the opening bell this morning were “chomping at the bit,” to drive a bullish advance based on the upbeat tone of the President’s speech.   In fact, U.S. investors kicked the Dow nearly 200 points higher at the start of the day’s trading!

The Dow has rallied more than 330 points taking just 24 days to advance from the highly anticipated 20,000 milestone to 21,000!  With investors less curious about how much of the Presidents goals would be funded and more focused on the positive direction the new Administration is headed…..the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all are in positive territory for now.

Smart money is now placed on the Fed enacting a small rate increase at its March meeting due to growing consumer confidence, posted fourth-quarter GDP and home price figures all indicating that economic momentum surging at the end of 2016 is still on the rise.

Trump Bump vs. Fed March Madness

The currency exchange markets have also seen a “Trump Bump,” from his speech Tuesday night.  It is expected that the USD and U.S. Equity Futures will continue to drive higher after the President’s speech. When you combine his speech and the comments of Mr. John Williams of the San Francisco Fed made before the joint address to Congress….it is obvious that the bullish drive for the Greenback should be expected.

Will the current trajectory continue as a long-term bullish trend?  What should you be doing now to prepare for the March Fed meeting to secure your currency driven profits?  Let our Account Managers at MosaicaFX help you navigate those questions to ensure you take advantage of this fast closing window of opportunity.

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Gross Domestic Product: The Dollar Depends On It

Gross Domestic Product

…Why it is Important

Let’s start with the basics.  What is the Gross Domestic Product or GDP as it is more commonly known?  In simple terms, the gross domestic product is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country’s economy.  It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period.  Another way to think of GDP is as the size of the economy.

In most cases, GDP is expressed as a comparison from one quarter or year to another.  As an example, if the GDP total for 2016 is 2.5% higher than it was for the year 2015…then that means the economy has grown by 2.5% over last year.

The formula for calculating GDP is rather complicated, however, there are generally two accepted ways for figuring out a country’s Gross Domestic Product.  One way is by adding up the combined income for everyone in a country (over a given time frame) and the other formula is by adding up what everyone in the country spent in a given time frame.  These two formulas are appropriately known as the “income approach,” or the “expenditure method.”  A third less common calculation is known as the “value-added,” approach.  It is used to calculate the GDP by industry.

Whichever method of the three that is used to calculate GDP…..it is best to think of it as a weather satellite photograph of the country at any given time.  This “snap-shot,” will reflect weather systems across the nation.  This information may tell you to prepare for bad weather and seek shelter or it may cause you to prepare for blizzard conditions or it could foretell mild temperatures and cool breezes.  In short, it will help you to prepare for what may be coming!

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What causes the GDP to sometimes behave like a rollercoaster ride?  Well the short answer is that the GDP fluctuates because of normal business cycles.  When the economy is behaving in a bullish manner and GDP is rising, the economy eventually reaches a point above equilibrium where inflationary pressures begin to build up at a rapid pace.  This generally indicates that labor and productive capacity of the economy is nearing full utilization.

Once that happens, the Fed will tighten monetary policies by raising interest rates.  The desired (and expected) outcome of this action is to slow down the economy just enough to quell inflation.  The trick is to “pump the brakes” of the economy enough to slow it down without completely interrupting the positive momentum it is exhibiting.

However, as interest rates rise, consumers and companies cut back on their spending….which slows the economy even more.  As consumers purchase less, companies are required to produce less, this leads to employee layoffs and those unemployed consumers then purchase less still.

All of these actions further affects consumer confidence…….and future product demand.  In an attempt to break this downward economic spiral the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy (i.e. cuts interest rates) to encourage banks lending and consumers and companies borrowing again……all of which contributes to economic growth, once again increasing employment until the economy is bullish again.  Thus begins the never-ending rollercoaster ride once.

Of course, there are numerous other factors that impact GDP trajectory.  Business investment, government spending, consumer confidence and of course the biggest single component of the economy, consumer spending.   Complex formulas and analytical research incorporating the aforementioned factors are used to calculate the GDP at any given time.

So what does it all really mean?

Now that we have a better understanding of what the GDP is….and what factors are used in its calculations, what exactly does it really mean to the average SMB owner?  The answer to that question is multifaceted to say the least.

The GDP (as we have established) can provide SMB’s with an indication of which way the economy is headed.  For instance, two quarters of GDP decline are excepted signals that the economy is in recession.  A recession is obviously a bad environment for most businesses to grow in.  Generally speaking, a declining GDP means that the labor force is shrinking as a result of lagging consumer spending, thus resulting in lowered company orders for goods and services.  Once consumer confidence begins to suffer….consumer spending declines follow shortly behind.

During an economic slowdown, many SMB’s face a number of challenges.  As consumers become concerned about their job stability, they are more likely to be cautious with expenditures, which leads to decreased revenue for small business owners.  A slowed revenue stream for SMB’s forces them to downsize their workforce.  This action limits their ability to serve customers, further eroding their potential to generate revenue while also contributing to the unemployment rate…..which advances a declining economy.

There are two main ways that most free-market economies grow.  One is through population growth.  As the population increases, additional goods and services are consumed by these additions to the economy.  The other way is through increases in consumer spending.  As wages increase ( or expenses decrease) for the average consumer, they have more disposable income in their pockets to spend.  As they spend more, the companies that manufacture or provide goods and services must increase their production capabilities.  This in turn leads to them purchasing more raw materials and/or hiring more labor.

As more employees are hired from the available labor pool, the demand for labor increases. Such demands then help to drive up salaries for employees….again increasing the amount of disposable income available for consumers to spend in the economy.  From an economic standpoint, one could refer to this as “….the circle of life.” The bottom line is that in a strong economy, nearly all businesses enjoy greater prosperity.

How can SMB’s use this data?

As the owner of an SMB, the trends forecast in GDP data can help you develop management action plans for your company. Let’s consider a few scenarios that may help to explain what we mean.

Scenario #1: GDP numbers indicate that the economy is growing at a very strong rate for the last 3-4 quarters.  Wages, employment and bank lending have all been on a strong upward trajectory.  This could indicate that inflation is about to rear its ugly head, thus spurring the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates to try and control inflation.  If you were considering securing a line of credit from your bank for your company……now might be the time to go and lock down that credit line before interest rates start to creep up.

Scenario #2: The GDP is reflecting back-to-back negative growth.  The economy is technically in a recession, even if your current business numbers don’t reflect it.  If you own an SMB that is not recession proof by nature, now might be the time to initiate cost saving measures and avoid large capital expenditures or investment.  If the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth are precursors to a longer downturn in the economy…..now may not be the time to overextend your company.

Scenario #3: The past three consecutive quarters seem to indicate a “flat-line,” with regards to GDP growth.  While the GDP hasn’t taken a downward turn…..it also hasn’t reflected any positive growth potential either. This may be the time for you to simply work on increasing your company efficiencies and review your product/ service lines to ensure they are where you need them to be to guarantee a competitive advantage in your market sector.  You may also consider trying to build cash reserves until future economic indicators help establish which direction the economy is actually headed.

Small and Medium sized businesses have an advantage over large businesses when it comes to adapting to economic swings.  Typically, SMB’s have a smaller nucleus of leadership which allows for quicker decision making and course corrections.  Whereas larger companies may need to call multiple stockholder meetings to discuss changes in business strategy and direction.  SMB’s are generally much more nimble when it comes to reacting to the ups and downs of the economy.

To ensure that an SMB can take advantage of this “corporate nimbleness,” it is imperative that management use the tools and data available to them to make smart decisions.  GDP can be a tremendous data point for them to rely upon during that process.

 

 

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What Is the Biggest Economic Threat Facing Our New President?

What Is the Biggest Economic Threat

Facing Our New President?

As we have all learned over the last many national election cycles, to the winner goes the spoils.  However, when the new President gets sworn into office in January 2017 and the new Congress is seated next year, one has to ask…..why would anyone want such a job to begin with?  Gone are the good old days when our government leaders could “….kick the proverbial can down the road,” so the next generation could solve the problems inherited from the previous poor decision makers.  We are at a cross roads as a nation when it comes to our economic health.  We can no longer continue to make promises and then write checks we have no intention of ever honoring.  One thing is certain……the 44th Leader of the Free World, will be the first President inaugurated to oversee a $20 TRILLION Dollar National Debt.

$20,000,000,000,000…..and counting!

Let’s first put the number $20 TRILLION in perspective.  A  U.S. one dollar bill measures .0043 inches thick.  The height of a stack of 1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) dollar bills measures 67,866 miles.  This would reach more than one fourth of the way to the moon from the Earth.  Twenty trillion one dollar bills would measure 1,357,320 miles!  Consider the moon is only 252,088 miles from the Earth.

Put another way, the length of a U.S. one dollar bill is 6.14 inches.  One trillion dollar bills laid end-to-end would measure 96,906,656 miles…..or roughly the distance from the Earth to the Sun.  Still not impressed?  Consider this calculation…… if you were to spend $20.00 per second, it would take you 1,585 YEARS to spend ONE TRILLION DOLLARS.  To spend $20 TRILLION Dollars would take 317 CENTURIES! 

Now that we properly understand just how big the number $20 TRILLION actually is, let’s consider a few other facts for a moment.  How much currency, cash, bones, cheddar, clams, greenbacks, bread or cabbage is available (liquid) in the world at any given time?  The simple answer is it depends on how you define “money?”  The narrowest definition, or what is called “M0,” includes only physical money such as paper bills and metal coins.  It is estimated that figure comes in around $5 TRILLION Dollars (U.S. equivalent). The next designation is “M1.”  This includes all of the physical money, plus quickly accessed currency like that in checking accounts for an approximate total of $25 TRILLION. Remember, this is a worldwide assessment.  “M2,” includes all of the funds included in M0 and M1 but also includes less liquid designations such as savings accounts and CD’s under $100,000.  Hence, M0+M1+M2 = $60 TRILLION (approximately).

To remind you (again) the aforementioned valuations are worldwide assessments……as in all of the available money in the world at any given time.  To be clear though, there is only around $25 TRILLION Dollars (U.S. equivalent) available (liquid) at one time.  As we already know, our United States National Debt is approximately $20 TRILLION Dollars and climbing and yet there is only around $25 TRILLION Dollars available in the whole world in liquid “cash.”  Is your blood pressure starting to rise yet?

What’s the Big Deal?

Our National Debt has a tremendous impact on a variety of issues.  It is currently the largest national debt in the world for a single country.  It is “tied,” with that of the European Union….which is of course an economic union of 28 countries.  Nearly two-thirds is made up of “public debt.”  This is debt owed to people, businesses and foreign governments who have purchased Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds.  The debt is nearly as much as the country produces (GDP) in a whole year.  That ratio notifies investors that the country may have problems repaying their loans.  That is a major worry for both the U.S. and its foreign note holders.  To put that ratio into perspective, in the early 1990’s the debt was only half of America’s annual economic output.  An interesting aside is that the debt ceiling is supposed to limit the debt.  However, at the current Administration’s insistence, Congress suspended the debt ceiling ………until after the 2016 Presidential elections.

In the short term, the economy and voters actually may benefit from deficit spending.  However, over the long-term, a growing Federal debt is like driving your vehicle with the emergency brake on, slowing the U.S. economy down even more.  Added pressure increases when you consider that at any point, foreign debt holders could demand larger interest payments to compensate for what they perceive as an increasing risk the U.S. won’t be able to make good on its financial obligations.  If this happens, the United States will have to pay exorbitant amounts just for the interest due on these Notes and Bonds held by investors.

Congress realizes it is facing a major debt crisis.  In fact, over the next 20 years, the Social Security Trust Fund will not have enough funds to cover the retirement benefits promised to Baby Boomers.  This will undoubtedly mean higher taxes to fund those obligations, since the high U.S. debt rules out further loans from other countries.  Unfortunately, it’s most likely that benefits like these will be curtailed either to retirees under 70 years of age or to higher income retirees not as dependent on Social Security payments to fund their retirement.

The Political Rubik’s Cube

Everyone remembers the memory toy known as the Rubik’s Cube.  (If you don’t remember the toy…..then you probably wouldn’t have done well with it anyway.)  It had what appeared to be an almost limitless amount of permutations available to “solve,” the puzzle.  When in reality there were very specific moves that needed to be made to bring the sides of the cube into the proper color sequence.  This is very similar to how the US economy and its supportive markets must be managed as well.  While it is no doubt important that we have a robust employment sector with good paying jobs supporting consumers……..it is equally important that our U.S. currency remain strong enough to keep the costs of good and services reasonable.  Each puzzle piece must fit with the adjoining one.

While the various facets of the economy must all be working in concert with each other to ensure an overall healthy country, there are very specific points that cannot be ignored.  Of all of the most important components that must be addressed for the long-term health of our country……..the national debt may be the most critical one.  Our next President will have to address that issue going forward.  However, the question facing our incoming leadership is a most puzzling one.  Ready?  Here it is……

“If U.S. Debt is around $20 Trillion Dollars and climbing, and

Current U.S. economic output is close to being eclipsed by the

Volume of said debt and the amount of readily available

Cash (worldwide) is also close to being eclipsed by an

Equivalent U.S. debt level…..how can the U.S. debt

 Expect to be retired in the foreseeable future?”

That is the $64,000 question.  For the U.S. economy and thus the U.S. citizens that live with it to be able to thrive over the next twenty years, the debt is going to have to be addressed.  Even if we accept that it may never be completely paid down, which is a logical assumption…..we should focus on the reasonable goal of lowering it.  What would be a reasonable debt target?  Most economists believe that a sustainable debt level is one that is equal to half of our countries annual GDP, or economic output.  Hence, much like the levels it remained at in the late 1980’s through the early 1990’s.

One thing you can count on though.  If the U.S. electorate does not hold our elected officials collective “feet to the fire,” they will never make the tough decisions that will decide on what kind of economic country our children will live in.  Let’s hope that the new President is tough enough to not shirk this responsibility.  Let’s hope they were good at solving the Rubik’s Cube once upon a time!

 

PS:  Anyone want to guess what the worldwide national (cumulative) debt level stands at?

 

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Brexit…Update No. 3

Brexit…Update No. 3

It has now been over four months since the EU shattering Brexit vote where the will of the UK citizenry declared themselves free from the constraints of the European Union’s economic shackles.

As many stalwarts of the EU had proclaimed the immediate and disastrous downfall of the UK’s economy based solely on the vote itself…..we figured it was time that we take a brief glance at the latest reverberations that were ignited by that historic vote.  You may be somewhat surprised by what we found.

UK economic growth did indeed slow down following the vote in June…but less than predicted.  The Office for National Statistics said GDP grew in the UK by 0.5% in the third quarter (July to September), compared to 0.7% in the previous quarter.

Chancellor Philip Hammond stated, “…The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong and today’s data shows that the economy is (quite) resilient.”   The Chief Economist for the Office for National Statistics said, “…..There is little evidence that Britain’s vote to leave the EU had a pronounced impact on the UK economy do to Brexit.” 

The other notable quotes attributed to the Chancellor were also positive as a whole.  “While quarterly growth has fallen slightly, the economy has continued to expand at a rate broadly similar to that seen since 2015 and there is little evidence of a pronounced effect in the immediate aftermath of the vote,” said Hammond.  He went on to note that the “dominant” services industries continued to offset “further” falls in new construction while manufacturing “continue” to remain overall flat.

Positive Outcomes Exceeded Negative Expectations!

As a consensus forecast of economists had predicted a “post Brexit” growth rate of just 0.3%.  This anemic number had been broadcast daily leading up to the actual vote as an expected result if the UK opted to jettison the EU relationship.  In fact, many economists in the UK government had actually indicated that if Brexit carried the day, the country would be “lucky” to see a 0.3% rate of GDP growth!  Hence, a growth rate of 0.5% was seen as a welcome surprise.

On a year-to-year basis, growth was also higher than expected, with UK GDP 2.3% higher over the course of the last 12 months, again…..compared to a forecast of only 2.1%.  Once again, this was considered an unexpected positive for the economy.  Many also saw it as a repudiation of the naysayers who claimed a negative economic impact was almost assured post-Brexit!

While the data obviously makes a positive first statement, as Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics points out, preliminary GDP estimates, due to the very nature of their reporting, often overestimate growth, so that number could easily be revised downwards a bit at the next update.

As inflation has surged higher in the UK as a consequence of the pound’s fall in recent weeks, this may also fuel some future Brexit fall-out.  To be specific, inflation hit 1% in October, the first time in close to two years it reached a full measured point.  It is possible that inflation may continue to climb as the result of the pounds drop will be fully felt in the months to come.  Some economists believe that inflation could eventually touch 3.0% – 3.5% in 2017.  As Tombs stated recently, “….the adverse consequences of the Brexit vote will become increasingly clear as (if) inflation shoots up and firms postpone investment over the coming quarters.”

Coutts Countenance

As Coutts Investments has stated, the pound remains the biggest economic casualty so far since Brexit. Since it plummeted in the days following the vote and has languished at multi-decade lows ever since, the result has been the birth of the current rise in inflation.  However, Coutts states in their latest investment overview, “…..We think (the) Sterling may be pricing in too much pessimism ——we don’t see a UK recession looming and we believe the longer-term impact of Brexit on the economy would not be disastrous.”

Coutts went on to note, “…..Though the ultimate impact on the UK’s long-term future remains uncertain, we believe currency markets are too pessimistic.”  Measured in various ways, the Sterling looks cheap by long-term standards making the UK assets more affordable for overseas buyers.  This would be expected to invigorate investments flowing into the UK, thus driving the Sterling higher eventually.  While this may take a while as the process of leaving the UK unfolds, it still seems to represent a minimally damaging effect in the long-term.

While much of the complete picture of the Brexit impact is still poised to unfold, there are two very important points to not overlook at this time.  First, the UK is still standing.  It did not vanish in a black puff of smoke and in fact, it so far seems to be weathering the storm quite well.  One must always remember that the British are a tough lot.  They have always been a proud people and are not easily brought to their knees.  Second, the real test will be when Prime Minister Theresa May begins the actual technical process of “unspooling,” the UK from the EU.  IF, that surgical procedure is done with great skill it will no doubt minimize the potential negative outcomes many believe are still on the horizon.   As in any complex procedure…the operation can be a success…but you can still lose the patient.

Only time will tell… if GOD and Theresa May can save the Queen!